Managed Decline
“Managed decline” is a phrase that refers to the processes associated with the end of a specific lifecycle, with the goal of minimizing costs or other forms of loss. The concept originated in business where it referred to the management of companies and industries. More recently it is used in wider contexts. The concept gained prominence with regard to urban policy, particularly in the UK during the eighties when several major cities suffered economic and political collapse. Of late, the term has been applied to the UK, encompassing a systematic weakening of the economy, social structures, and cultural values, as well as its global political and diplomatic force. In each case, managed decline involves making strategic choices about resource allocation and accepting the consequences of those decisions. It is a complex issue with ethical and practical considerations, often sparking debate about the best way to address decline and reverse the process.
When I was in my early twenties and beginning my working life (circa 1990) there was still a strong belief held within the UK that overall, things improved for each generation. By this we meant working conditions and pay, opportunities, both career and social, as well as healthcare and life expectancy. To a degree it held true. By the time I was thirty I was earning far more each year in IT than my father had ever earned as a mechanical engineer. However, there were some disadvantages to this era, the most noticeable being buying a house. In the UK there has always been and remains a strong culture of home ownership. Like it or not, it is considered one of the criteria by which we define success. Sadly from the nineties onwards, buying a home has become increasingly more expensive to the point where it becomes an impossibility for those on low pay or a single income.
My son’s generation (he is in his early thirties) has a very different perspective on their personal future and that of the nation. The post war social contract is dead and the welfare state is unsustainable. Jobs seldom offer a salary sufficient to cover living costs, therefore one’s future is one of constant work and managing personal debt. As for retirement, it is seen as an impossible dream. The expectation is that one will have to work continuously, primarily to pay for rented accommodation. As for wider political issues, there is a growing consensus that traditional politics and parties cannot or will not fix the most immediate problems. Hence there is a growing interest in new parties and populism and a misplaced hope that they will reset the status quo. Sadly, populist leaders around the world have proven they are not up to the job and despite promises simply increase the existing wealth gaps and social disparity.
I no longer believe that the problems facing the UK can be fixed. The existing political system is not fit for purpose and attracts the worst of us. We have an ageing population and a diminishing workforce that expects continued access to the welfare state and healthcare at the standard that they have always enjoyed. All of us want national infrastructure and institutions such as the courts, police and schools etc to work but no one wants to pay the increased costs required to run them. As for the loaded subject of immigration, the real issue is not illegal immigrants but the number of legitimate migrants who come to the UK to fill the jobs caused by the ever increasing skills gap. We are failing to learn the skills required for a modern economy and today’s world. Both these issues are integral to our current problems and contribute to our national decline.
Another factor is the breakdown of social interaction and our national discourse, the replacing of community with the cult of the individual and the erosion of critical thinking. Nuance, context, knowledge and reason are now rare skills which are often met with hostility. Social media and the internet are certainly a factor in this cultural shift. All of which makes discussion and compromise impossible. Everything from what is your favourite brand of coffee to national politics is presented as a binary choice. Those who don’t favour your choice are, by default, your enemy. This cancerous mindset is spreading everywhere and into everything. Unable to counter “feelings” with logical arguments, the rational thinkers retreat, ceding territory to the furious hard of thinking. Nothing gets better because those who now have what they craved, namely power without knowledge, just break things and move on when they lose interest or fail to achieve their misplaced goal. Of course it’s always someone else’s fault.
Managed decline is a gradual process, although global events can exacerbate it. Hence I don’t see an immediate economic and social collapse. Governments will continue to tinker at the periphery of problems and there may be occasional lulls in problems and even minor economic booms, depending on wider global economic issues. But I do see pay stagnation, increases in the cost of living, public services struggling to work and infrastructure failing. Food shortages are also possible due to war and failing supply chains. Crime will increase as poverty grows and civil unrest will increase as frustration grows. As ever, it will be the poor and vulnerable who will bear the brunt of these problems. Civil rights and freedoms will also be curtailed as we voluntarily give more and more information to big companies. As AI becomes more ubiquitous it won’t be a case of robots oppressing us but simply a case of “the computer says no” because you failed to meet some spurious criteria within an algorithm.
What does one do in the face of such inevitability? At 57 I’m pretty much going to do nothing, because there is nothing I can do. There are no credible political parties and the process of government as it stands is unable to facilitate change. As for the younger generation, posting “ I stand with [insert cause here]” on social media, that isn’t going to help either. Traditional forms of lobbying and striving for political change are no longer effective. Plus, we don’t all want the same thing, due to the way we compartmentalise our lives and pick “sides”. Hence the future politically in the UK will be distinctly Pythonesque. Frankly, there comes a point where you have to cease feeling concerned and powerless about domestic and global politics because it is such a burden. So you just continue to live your life, the best you can, doing small acts of kindness as and when you can. Perhaps I’ll be dead before the worst of it happens, although I suspect that isn’t going to be the case.
