Shortages
In early June I was visiting Sainsbury’s supermarket in Crayford, apparently their biggest site in the UK, when I noticed that several shelves had the following sign. “Please bear with us. We’re experiencing high demand”. At the time I thought nothing of it but then I started seeing similar notices in other stores. I then began seeing stories on some news websites about supply chain problems. This point was then reiterated on the news radio station LBC. Two month on and this issue is now finding its way into the mainstream press. McDonald’s currently cannot supply milkshakes or bottle drinks and Nando has had to close 45 branches around the UK as it has no chicken wings to serve. It is now becoming very clear that there is a big problem on the horizon, due to several complex factors. If it is not addressed this matter will only get worse with shortages directly impacting upon Christmas sales.
In early June I was visiting Sainsbury’s supermarket in Crayford, apparently their biggest site in the UK, when I noticed that several shelves had the following sign. “Please bear with us. We’re experiencing high demand”. At the time I thought nothing of it but then I started seeing similar notices in other stores. I then began seeing stories on some news websites about supply chain problems. This point was then reiterated on the news radio station LBC. Two month on and this issue is now finding its way into the mainstream press. McDonald’s currently cannot supply milkshakes or bottle drinks and Nando has had to close 45 branches around the UK as it has no chicken wings to serve. It is now becoming very clear that there is a big problem on the horizon, due to several complex factors. If it is not addressed this matter will only get worse with shortages directly impacting upon Christmas sales.
It would appear that Britain’s supply chain crisis is a result of worker shortages and transport disruption caused by Covid and Brexit. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has stated that major retailers currently have the lowest stock levels since 1983. Furthermore a national shortage of lorry drivers and workers for food processing plants has led to increasing disruptions for food outlets and warnings of further empty supermarket shelves. Andrew Kuyk, the director general of the Provision Trade Federation, said there was no shortage of produce from UK farms, The gaps on shelves are instead the result of manpower and logistical difficulties. “Food is still being produced on farms and in factories, but it’s getting it to the consumer that is proving the challenge in lots of different ways. There is a lack of lorry drivers, warehouse staff, staff in retail distribution centres, in the supermarket to put it on the shelves”.
So what is being done to address the situation? Recruitment across all related industries has increased but so far has not remedied the situation. The big supermarket chains are offering substantial bonuses and pay increases, especially to HGV drivers. However, the short term result is that they’re merely poaching staff from smaller outlets and alleviating their own problems by compounding those of other sectors. Another aspect of these ongoing staff shortages is the fact that those who previously worked in these jobs were migrant labour from Europe. The post Brexit landscape with increased administrative work and bureaucracy has not proved conducive to attracting replacements. Furthermore, although not exclusively a Brexit issue, its very association makes this a politically charged subject. The current UK government which was elected on the mandate of “getting Brexit done” will not want to concede that there are downsides to the undertaking.
At present, although this supply and labour problem is currently known in the UK, it has not become the focus of the UK media. Therefore many members of the public will be oblivious of this problem until it directly affects them. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the tabloid press capitalise on this aspect, once matters worsen. I also suspect that the UK government will be late to act and when they do, their response will be inadequate, as it has been with everything else they’ve dealt with since December 2019. I’m curious to see if shortages at Christmas will have a greater impact upon the Prime Minister’s approval rating than the thousands of excess COVID-19 related deaths. In the meantime, we’ve bought a second freezer and are doing our best to prepare for a difficult winter. Sadly not everyone is in a position to do so. What a ridiculous state of affairs for a G7 country.
The New Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
From time to time, I have written what can broadly be classified as political posts. Most of these have been designed to present an overview to those readers who live outside of the UK and may not be familiar with the subtleties of British politics. Furthermore, I am not affiliated to any of the major UK political parties and broadly see myself as politically homeless at present. This post is a brief overview on today’s change in UK Prime Minister and is intended to explain how this situation has occurred and what happens next.
From time to time, I have written what can broadly be classified as political posts. Most of these have been designed to present an overview to those readers who live outside of the UK and may not be familiar with the subtleties of British politics. Furthermore, I am not affiliated to any of the major UK political parties and broadly see myself as politically homeless at present. This post is a brief overview on today’s change in UK Prime Minister and is intended to explain how this situation has occurred and what happens next.
In the 2017 General Election the Conservative Party managed to bolster its reduced numbers in the House of Parliament by doing a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, thus having sufficient seats to form a government. The leader of the Conservative party was at that time Theresa May, so by default she became the 54th Prime Minister of the UK. However, the issue of Brexit currently falls outside of traditional party lines and therefore cannot be seen purely as a “Left versus Right” problem. The Conservative Party has been and remains divided over Brexit and Theresa May has been fighting a running battle not only with opposition parties but with half of her own backbenchers. Due to current parliamentary arithmetic she has been unable to find any support for her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and effectively lost the ability to lead her own party. Her departure from the office of Prime Minister is down to her own party, who concluded that she couldn’t deliver Brexit in a manner deemed suitable nor win a General Election. Hence, she was politically forced to go.
So in recent weeks there has been a “battle” to become the next leader of the Conservative party because that leader will by default become the next Prime Minister. Needless to say early opinion polls showed the Ex-Foreign Secretary and former Mayor of London Boris Johnson was heading for a substantial victory. Yesterday it was announced that he had won the leadership race against the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, by 92,153 to 46,656 votes. Now, it is very important to stress that this was not in anyway, a public vote. This was a vote of Conservative Party members; the members of the general public who are sufficiently engaged politically to pay their subscriptions fees and join the Conservative Party. It wasn’t a vote for Prime Minister but a vote on who would be the new leader of the party. But because that party is currently in government, then that new party leader automatically steps into the role of Prime Minister. Therefore the leader of the 5th largest economy in the world was decided by 138,809 people. The current electorate of the UK is 46.8 million people.
As of this afternoon, Theresa May has visited The Queen and formally resigned her premiership. Boris Johnson will subsequently have an audience with Her Majesty and state his intentions to form a government. Once these formalities have been addressed, he will return to 10 Downing Street and take residence. His next immediate duty is to sign the “letters of last resort”. These are four identically worded handwritten letters from the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom to the commanding officers of the four British ballistic missile submarines. They contain instructions to retaliate or not to retaliate against a nuclear strike, or for the Commander to use their own judgement or to place the vessel under command of an Allied Power. Once this has been done, then it is a question of politics. No doubt the new Prime Minister will make a formal statement to the British public before then proceeding with forming a new cabinet. Political opponents will be dismissed and those loyal, or invaluable will be given new positions. It should be noted that Boris Johnson is a controversial figure within his own party. That combined with current Brexit divisions means that some MPs will not work with him. Several Ministers have already resigned.
What happens in the next few weeks of Prime Minister Johnson’s term of office is much harder to predict. He has stated that he means to return to the EU and “re-open Brexit negotiations, although there is little or no political will from Europe to do such things. There is still very strong political resistance against “no deal” in parliament across all parties. Will there be any tangible movement on Brexit? I’m not so sure. Then there is the issue of international relationships and due to the shadow of Brexit, will there be a shift towards the greater ties with the US and its current incumbent president. There some in the UK that would like to see a Prime Minister that followed suite with President Trump and pursued a similarly unorthodox approach to government. One that is happy to break with tradition and existing perceived wisdom. Yet there are others both at a parliamentary level and as registered voters that are deeply sceptical of Boris Johnson, his political track record, associations and overall approach to politics.
If the new Prime Minster finds himself stymied on all fronts it may well lead to another general election. There is the possibility of a vote of no confidence by MPs or Prime Minister Johnson may well take a calculated risk to hold an election himself to give his position political legitimacy and to seek to increase the Conservative majority in parliament. It should be noted that one of the reasons that Johnson was voted into office by party members, is because he’s one of the few politicians that is recognised nationally. Because a substantial percentage of the UK electorate are not greatly politically engaged, he has the advantage of brand recognition and is perceived as affable and a charismatic. Therefore Conservative party members hope he be able successfully win a further term of office for the current government. Yet the recent Local Council Elections along with the European Election showed that the country remains divided and broadly entrenched in its political positions. I’m not sure if such a gamble would payoff or make any significant difference to the parliamentary landscape.
Effectively it is now just a question of time and waiting to see where Prime Minister tries to go politically. Will he pursue a dogmatic approach to Brexit or will he prove to be more pragmatic and flexible to get this extremely difficult matter resolved? Or will he be politically consumed by his Premiership as his predecessor? As for the man himself and the controversy surrounding him, I will leave that to others to analyse as they have far more information at their disposal than I. Here is a link to an article in today’s Washington Post by Ian Dunt is the editor of Politics.co.uk, in which he scrutinises Boris Johnson and reflects upon both his political and private personas.
Nothing Has Changed
On the 23rd of June 2016, the UK held a referendum on whether to remain or leave the European Union. The results were 51.89% to leave and 48.11% to remain. Due to the significance of the subject matter and the way the European question has been discussed in the media over the past decade, there was a high voter turnout of 72.21%. 33,577,342 people cast their vote out of a total electorate of 46,500,001. The levels of public engagement were far higher than those seen with local or general elections. However, despite a binary question yielding a binary result, the issue of Brexit has not been laid to rest. It can be cogently argued that the entire referendum was rushed, poorly thought through, with neither side running campaigns that provided all the relevant facts of the impact of leaving the EU. As ever the entire matter has been driven first and foremost by party politics and remains so today. Perhaps the biggest issue that stems from the 2016 vote is the size of the leave victory. A “win” of 1.89% is far from decisive and makes a nonsense of political rhetoric such as “the will of the people”. At the time, Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence Party, stated that “a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it”. Unfortunately, nearly three years on Brexit shows no sign of ending.
On the 23rd of June 2016, the UK held a referendum on whether to remain or leave the European Union. The results were 51.89% to leave and 48.11% to remain. Due to the significance of the subject matter and the way the European question has been discussed in the media over the past decade, there was a high voter turnout of 72.21%. 33,577,342 people cast their vote out of a total electorate of 46,500,001. The levels of public engagement were far higher than those seen with local or general elections. However, despite a binary question yielding a binary result, the issue of Brexit has not been laid to rest. It can be cogently argued that the entire referendum was rushed, poorly thought through, with neither side running campaigns that provided all the relevant facts of the impact of leaving the EU. As ever the entire matter has been driven first and foremost by party politics and remains so today. Perhaps the biggest issue that stems from the 2016 vote is the size of the leave victory. A “win” of 1.89% is far from decisive and makes a nonsense of political rhetoric such as “the will of the people”. At the time, Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence Party, stated that “a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it”. Unfortunately, nearly three years on Brexit shows no sign of ending.
Traditionally, UK politics is mainly driven by two major parties, which hail from different ends of the political spectrum. Major socioeconomic issues are usually championed or opposed by each of these groups. The UK electorate are broadly tribal and due to the first past the post voting, deciding outcomes on the big issues such as taxation, the economy and social matters is fairly straightforward. However, Brexit has thrown a major spanner in the works, as it has fallen outside of this existing methodology. The choice of whether to remain or leave has divided both the Conservative and Labour parties, therefore neither are fully invested in one particular position. Parliament is therefore split on Brexit which is why it has been unable to deliver a definitive outcome. The referendum asked a very simple question and the results were then handed to parliament to implement. But parliament has not managed to do this and it would appear that this inertia will prevail for the immediate future. There is no majority view on either side of the debate and more importantly, parliamentary numbers to back a specific position and force it through.
The entire Brexit debate has also seen a shift in UK politics away from evidenced based, factual driven policy and measured reasoned debate. In many ways Brexit has been co-opted into a broader political cause that encompasses many long-standing grievances. Regional inequality, a decade of austerity and fears over globalisation and social change have resulted in a major sense of pushback against a political system and traditional parties that do not appear to serve any interest other than their own. Societal changes have seen broadly held political ideologies erode and the rise of consumerism and individualism means that many now view politics as a mechanic for facilitating one’s own needs, rather than the collective “good” of the nation. Hence Brexit is a very dogmatic and tribal driven debate. Contemporary politics has always been up until now about compromise and what can be achieved over what is hoped for. Yet attempts to compromise over Brexit have failed in parliament and certainly the public appears to have no stomach for it. It’s very much a case of all or nothing.
Last week, the UK voted in the European Parliamentary Elections. Due to the ongoing Brexit impasse, the country was legally bound to participate. As many of the electorate were deeply unhappy with the status quo there was a strong show of support for the newly formed Brexit Party, which has campaigned on a single issue and has at present no other distinct policies. Hence the traditional parties of Labour and the Conservatives suffered an unparalleled loss of public support. Again this stems from neither having a clear policy on the matter. At first glance, it would appear that the Brexit Party was the major success story of these elections. As ever politicians interviewed across multiple news outlets fought to put their own unique spin on the results, to either validate their own positions or to mollify the political fallout. But if one looks beyond the rhetoric and consider the results in a measured analytical fashion, they offer a rather stark conclusion. It is broadly agreed that these elections where fought predominantly on one issue alone; the question of Brexit. Therefore if the results are viewed from such a perspective you find that leave voters predominantly supported the Brexit Party which polled 31.6% of the vote. Remain voters backed the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party who collectively made up 32.4% of the vote share. If you then consider the Scottish and Welsh Nationalist votes, as both parties have a clear remain agenda, then that adds a further 4.6% to that position.
The question of where the two big parties stand is more ambiguous so it is hard to assign their numbers to either of the two sides of the Brexit debate. Ultimately these numbers show that there is still no majority view in the UK of the subject of leaving the EU. Furthermore, the electorate appear to be becoming more entrenched in their position and have simply transferred their votes to those parties that have a clear policy on the subject. Therefore the conclusion is that after nearly three years, despite numerous debates in parliament, new facts and details about the reality of Brexit becoming apparent and continual public discourse on the matter, nothing has changed. This conclusion is certainly food for thought.
For those who wish to see a speedy resolution to Brexit, these results are a clear sign that such a thing is not going to happen any time soon. The question of Europe and our relationship with the continent has claimed yet another Conservative leader and we now face the prospect of an acrimonious battle for the position. Currently the next leader will become Prime Minister by default, yet regardless of whether that individual adopts a tougher stance on Brexit, favouring a no deal resolution, it doesn’t alter the current parliamentary reality. There is still no prevailing consensus among MPs and no one political party has sufficient numbers to force through any kind of definitive decision. Furthermore, the divide within the Conservative party is such that some MPs are preparing to vote against their own government and party to initiate no confidence proceedings if a no deal scenario becomes likely. Simply put, last night’s election results have made the Brexit conundrum even harder to resolve.
So what happens next? If both Labour and the Conservative parties wish to survive as functioning political entities, then they need to rethink their positions and effectively pick a side very quickly. It will more than likely be a case that the Conservatives will now pursue a no-deal stance and go all in on concluding our exit from the EU by the current October 31st deadline. Labour will now have to clearly adopt a confirmatory vote policy that includes a remain option, on any proposal that parliament agrees upon. Again, the notion of compromise is jettisoned. There will naturally be consequences for picking a side, as much as there will be for not doing so.
Brexit remains the most impossible political circle to square in current peace time politics. And due to the lack of a clear consensus among the electorate, no single outcome will “heal the nation”. The UK is not only going to remain an angry divided nation, it is more than likely going to get a lot worse. For those outside of the UK with an interest in global politics, I’m sure the Brexit issue may well provide fascinating viewing and much to consider. Yet for those living and enduring the ongoing Brexit debacle it is becoming a major source of worry and concern. There is scope for a no deal Brexit to have calamitous results upon the UK economy, potentially of the kind you cannot just ignore. Similarly, overturning Brexit and revoking Article 50 could also lead to the implosion of nation politics and the collapse of the “perception” of democracy. A political “Kobayashi Maru test” if you will. What happens next is anyone’s guess.
A Divided Nation
I’ve heard some journalists and political pundits refer to Brexit as an insoluble problem. Technically that is not the case. A Hard Brexit would effectively meet the criteria of the 2016 referendum result and its binary question. What is insoluble is the government delivering a result that pleases all parties and more importantly doesn’t put the UK economy at risk. Brexit is a microcosm of everything that is wrong with UK politics at the present. The original very straight forward question on the ballot paper did not indicate in any way the logistical, procedural and legal complexities of extricating the UK from the EU after over forty years of major harmonisation and integration. The leave campaign openly stated that this very process would be easy and getting a good deal was not an issue. Both were lies. Hence, we now find ourselves in a situation where the realities of what Brexit entails are manifestly clear, and no one agrees as to what is the best way to proceed. And all of this is panning out against a background of broken, tribal and hostile politics. It is a recipe for disaster and now that the Brexit Pandora’s Box has been opened, there is no scenario that doesn’t lead to future problems and unrest.
I’ve heard some journalists and political pundits refer to Brexit as an insoluble problem. Technically that is not the case. A Hard Brexit would effectively meet the criteria of the 2016 referendum result and its binary question. What is insoluble is the government delivering a result that pleases all parties and more importantly doesn’t put the UK economy at risk. Brexit is a microcosm of everything that is wrong with UK politics at the present. The original very straight forward question on the ballot paper did not indicate in any way the logistical, procedural and legal complexities of extricating the UK from the EU after over forty years of major harmonisation and integration. The leave campaign openly stated that this very process would be easy and getting a good deal was not an issue. Both were lies. Hence, we now find ourselves in a situation where the realities of what Brexit entails are manifestly clear, and no one agrees as to what is the best way to proceed. And all of this is panning out against a background of broken, tribal and hostile politics. It is a recipe for disaster and now that the Brexit Pandora’s Box has been opened, there is no scenario that doesn’t lead to future problems and unrest.
The UK is a divided country. Its political parties seem to have abandoned very specific parts of society and entire regions have been neglected by successive governments. The gap between rich and poor is increasing, and the middle classes are no longer insulated from the country’s economic woes. Social changes over the last fifty years have seen a shift away from traditional political doctrines and the sense of being part of specific communities and groups. Consumerism has led to politics being seen as a means of personal gain and that is what often shapes the electorates position on major issues at elections. There is also an ever-widening gulf between the generations and the way they view the world. The young are happy to embrace a global market and are not constrained by past prejudices and cultural baggage. They also do not fear social change. Where as the Baby Boomer generation are very much entrenched in a mindset born of their time. Hence foreigners cannot be trusted and fantasies about British Exceptionalism are still harboured. A fictional past is mourned, and a modern future is feared.
Possibly the most worrying development in recent years is the shift in politics from fact based, intellectually driven debate into wanton tribalism. The “politics of feelings” has emerged as a result of social media and the internet. Equal access to online platforms has fostered an environment of false equivalence and the mainstream medias obsession with balance has perpetuated the myth that all views, no matter how unfounded or extreme, are of equal merit. Then there was Michael Gove’s misquoted statement that “people in this country have had enough of experts”. Although he was referencing a very specific group of tail chasing think tanks, the point was embraced in certain quarters. There has been a growing pushback of late against academia because it is by its very nature exclusionary. Some people simply do not like the idea that having no knowledge or experience of a specific thing, somehow keeps them from the top table and that their views are not treated with the same deference of those with a deeper understanding. The current socio-political changes in the UK go hand-in-hand with the spreading intellectual blackout throughout western democracies.
A great many people are legitimately unhappy with the way politics and social change has bypassed their concerns and wishes. The UK has an ageing political system that seems to be ill equipped for the modern world and more importantly an increasing diversity of opinions and views. Both the major political parties seem to be far too self-obsessed and removed from the reality of most of the electorates daily experience. Parliament needs to be overhauled, relocated and divested of many of the patrician traditions it is steeped in. Proportional representation also needs to be embraced. Yet sadly, none of these things appears to be immediate propositions. The growing disillusionment with mainstream politics leaves much of the electorate politically homeless. The major concern here is that the gap left by the demise of the only UK protest party, UKIP, may drive some into the waiting arms of the hard right or the extreme left. Are we looking at a return to the violent and tumultuous political times of the seventies? Because politics and governance driven by either extreme of the political spectrum seldom benefits the country.
What next for Theresa May’s EU deal?
And so the UK continues to act out of character with ongoing acts of protest and catharticism. Journalist Agnes C. Poirier, the UK editor for the French weekly magazine Marianne recently said on the BBC news discussion show Dateline London, that the UK “was behaving in a very un-British way” in so far as after decades of not cleaving to strong ideologies it is now doing the opposite over Brexit and also by being “passionate”, which is not a trait usually associated with the UK populous and their relationship with politics. It begs the question where will it all end? Well I think with regard to Brexit, the answer is not well. I believe any outcome available will be broadly unsatisfactory to the UK electorate. A Hard Brexit comes with potential economic turmoil, job loss and more. The Prime Minister’s compromise deal pleases neither side of the debate and entails the risk associated with a finite transition period and a dependency for the government to negotiate “good trade deals”. And the prospect of cancelling Brexit and retroactively remaining will cause social unrest and a further loss of faith in the UK political system. No one group is going to win, because there’s nothing to win. Brexit has simply removed a plaster from a festering national wound that has been neglected for decades.
As we as a nation are navigating uncharted territory politically and socially, it makes it very difficult to make any accurate predictions. I have never held the view that we cannot leave the EU. I have simply maintained that it cannot be done quickly and yet expected to yield the economic results that some politicians claimed. If the referendum had asked a more detailed question, stating a staged exit over several parliaments, then the very small leave result would be more palatable and practical. But it wasn’t and that is why we find ourselves in this mess. And Brexit is just the tip of the iceberg. It is simply a distillation of ongoing divide in opinion that is rife in the UK. Over the last two years it has become increasingly clear that many of the so-called shared “British values” are not universally embraced. The public do not all think in the same way regarding racism, equality, empathy and shared economic prosperity. And due to the “footballfication” of these sorts of issues, there is no scope for concessions, compromise of “agreeing to disagree”. You simply pick a side and hate the other. If you dare to opt out, then by default you’re an enemy because the prevailing mindset is “it’s my way or the highway”.
The British Empire at its height in the 20th Century
I am expecting a Hard Brexit and the consequences that go along with that. One can prepare to a degree but so many of the potential issues that could arise are out of our personal control. I fully expect the UK public to be in turmoil as a result and for there to be a series of minority governments in the immediate years to come. If there are hard economic consequences, then many who voted for Brexit may well be surprised that they are suffering as a result of their actions. Naturally blame will be placed at every door bar those who are genuinely responsible. The divide between rich and poor will grow, and social unrest increase as a result. As for the thorny issue of immigration, we will simply see European migrant labour replaced with international or, more than likely, Commonwealth migrant labour. That will not be well received in certain quarters. The systemic failing of our educational system and the cultural snobbery regarding many service-related jobs will leave us ill equipped to maintain the status quo regarding the way we live and consume. I suspect that the resulting backlash that is coming will end in violence and even fatalities. I believe the political classes will be at increased risk. But maybe Brexit and what proceeds it is a much needed and long postponed reality check for a nation. Perhaps we can finally lay to rest the myth on British Exceptionalism as well as put our colonial past and glory days behind us and find a new appropriate role in the modern world. However, if such a lesson can be learned it will be long, extremely painful and come with a significant price.